USD/CHF looks ready to turn lower from a short-term resistance!
Will we see a decent pullback in the next trading sessions?
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out NZD/USD’s short-term range ahead of Powell’s speech and after New Zealand’s inflation expectations release. Be sure to check out if it’s still a good play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
U.S. initial jobless claims grew from slipped from 220K to 217K (vs. 218K expected)
FOMC Chairman Powell shared that “We are not confident” that the Fed has achieved “sufficiently restrictive” policies, and reminded that the Fed “won’t hesitate to tighten policy further if needed” to contain inflation
BusinessNZ manufacturing index dropped from 45.1 to 42.5 in October, the lowest non-COVID-affected month since May 2009; the “PMI is not a good look for GDP and employment growth.”
The RBA’s quarterly report revealed that members discussed holding rates steady but judged that “it was appropriate to raise rates” in November, partly because “domestic inflationary pressures are dissipating more slowly than previously thought” and “there is potential for further upside surprises to inflation”
U.K.’s quarterly GDP stagnated (0.0%) from Q2 to Q3 (-0.1% expected, 0.2% previous); monthly GDP grew by 0.2% (0.0% expected, 0.1% previous)
U.K.’s industrial production steadied (0.0% m/m) in August (-0.1% m/m expected, -0.5% m/m previous)
Price Action News
The Australian dollar got hit with a one-two punch today as traders digested Fed Chairman Powell’s hawkish remarks as well as the RBA’s quarterly report revealing that there may be room for “further upside surprises” to inflation.
Traders who were bailing on “risky” assets like AUD sold the comdoll against most of its major counterparts.
AUD is down the most against GBP and NZD and is seeing the least losses against safe havens like JPY and CHF.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
Italy’s industrial production at 9:00 am GMTECB President Lagarde to give a speech at 12:30 pm GMTU.S. preliminary UoM consumer sentiment at 3:00 pm GMT
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In case you missed the memo, the U.S. dollar gained some ground against its major counterparts after FOMC Chairman Powell shared hawkish sentiments.
The pro-USD move sent USD/CHF to the .9040 mark, which conveniently lines up with the top of an ascending channel and is near the R1 (.9050) Pivot Point level in the 15-minute time frame.
But USD bulls have taken a chill pill since then. In fact, USD/CHF looks ready to turn lower thanks to a lack of fresh USD-friendly catalysts.
Will USD/CHF see a decent pullback in the next couple of hours?
Keep an eye on the .9020 Pivot Point level that’s near the mid-channel area on the chart. If USD/CHF sees a pullback, then the inflection point could attract at least some buying pressure.
However, if today’s UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations report support further interest rate hikes from the Fed, then you should also be ready for a possible continuation of USD/CHF’s upswing.
The .9040 previous highs or .9050 area of interest could serve as initial make-or-break points for USD/CHF bulls but a clear break above the resistance zone opens the pair for a possible move to .9080.
Watch your charts and the newswires if you’re planning on trading this setup!