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Daily Forex News and Watchlist: USD/JPY

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Will the upcoming U.S. CPI report put the Fed on more hawkish footing versus the dovish BOJ?

Here’s a USD/JPY setup that might play out in that case!

Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out EUR/GBP trending lower ahead of BOE head Bailey’s speech. Be sure to check out if it’s still a good play!

And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:

Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:

U.S. EIA crude oil inventories posted a 1.3 million barrel gain in stockpiles vs. estimated reduction of 0.2 million barrels, despite Suez Canal attacks and rerouting

FOMC member Williams says that interest rates are high enough to cool inflationary pressures

SEC document confirms that bitcoin ETFs have been approved, following previous day leak

U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen reiterates that more work needs to be done in order to get inflation under control

Australian goods trade surplus widened from 7.66 billion AUD to 11.44 billion AUD vs. estimated drop to 7.50 billion AUD in November

Japanese leading indicators fell from 108.9% to 107.7% in December vs. 107.9% forecast

Price Action News

Overlay of USD Pairs vs. Major Currencies Chart by TradingView

After a bit of consolidation during the New York trading session, the Greenback started today on weak footing, suggesting that traders are feeling jittery ahead of the U.S. CPI release.

The dollar chalked up small losses across the board, except against the Japanese yen which is still being bogged down by lower odds of an exit from negative interest rates.

Other financial markets are also on edge, with gold trading flat and awaiting the actual CPI print while U.S. bond yields and equities slumped.

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:

U.S. headline and core CPI at 1:30 pm GMTU.S. initial jobless claims at 1:30 pm GMTChinese CPI and PPI figures at 1:30 am GMT (Jan. 12)

Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action!  ️

USD/JPY 15-min Forex Chart by TradingView

USD/JPY 15-min Forex Chart by TradingView

This pair has been cruising higher, thanks mostly to dovish BOJ bets stemming from evidence of weak wage growth.

This was enough to dampen hopes of the central bank calling an end to negative interest rates sooner rather than later, even though policymakers might take cues from the spring wage negotiations.

Still, expectations of strong U.S. inflation might be enough for USD/JPY to keep its head above the rising trend line on its short-term chart.

The pair is currently testing this support zone, which happens to coincide with the 50% Fib and pivot point level (145.30). If this is enough to hold as a floor, watch out for an extension of the rally to the swing high (145.83) or even R1 (146.28).

On the other hand, a break below the trend line could pave the way for a drop to the downside targets at S1 (144.77) or even S2 (143.79). Don’t forget that the FOMC revealed they’re open for three rate cuts this year, so weak inflation data could mean this might happen sooner rather than later!

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