The key US NFP report indicated further dovish implications as Fed funds futures climbed. The slowing evidenced in the report has virtually taken a September hike off the table which has shifted up the timing for the first full rate cut to May from June 2024. The risk for tightening at the November 1 meeting is still on the table with another jobs report and two more CPI releases due by then. Next week’s agenda is relatively quiet however attention will be mainly on the RBA and BOC rate decisions.
Monday – 04 September 2023
United States and United Kingdom – Labor Day Holiday
Gross Domestic Product (CHF, GMT 07:00) – Swiss headline GDP results for Q2 are seen to grow by 0.3%.
Tuesday – 05 September 2023
Event of the Week – RBA Rate Statement & Cash Rate (AUD, GMT 04:30) – The RBA is expected to hold the key rate unchanged at 4.1% for an extended period now. The bank now expects inflation to return to within the 2-3% target. There remains scope for an upside surprise and the central bank reiterated that it thinks further tightening may be required, but conviction that the peak rates have been reached was strengthened.
Wednesday – 06 September 2023
Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The annualised GDP in Australia is likely to have cooled to 1.7% from 2.3% with quarterly growth unchanged.
Event of the Week – BOC Rate Statement & Cash Rate (CAD, GMT 14:00) –The mix of recent inflation and growth data leave the door open for another BOC hike. However, it is not clear it will be at the September 6 meeting. There are increasing signs that the increase to a 5.0% rate are biting, particularly in housing and other interest-sensitive sectors. GDP declined -0.2% in July, according to the flash estimate, after the 0.3% gain in May.
ISM Services PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index should drop to 52.3 from 52.7, versus a 3-year low of 49.2 in December, an all-time high of 68.4 in November 2021, an 11-year low of 41.8 in April 2020, and an all-time low of 37.8 in November 2008. Producer sentiment has stabilized around lean levels in 2023, after a big pull-back from robust peaks in November 2021, with many of the various component categories in contraction territory.
Thursday – 07 September 2023
RBA Gov Lowe Speaks (AUD, GMT 03:10) – Due to speak at the Anika Foundation, in Sydney.
Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 09:00) The quarterly data is expected to rise to 0.3% and the annualized Q2 data to decline to 0.6% from 1.1% The Italian and Irish GDP numbers were revised down, with the huge revision for Ireland in particular adding to signs that Eurozone GDP numbers will also be revised lower. French and German GDP data also didn’t bring a major revision.
Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – The Canadian Ivey PMI contracted in August to 48.6.
FOMC Member William and Bowman Speeches (USD, GMT 19:30 & 20:55).
Gross Domestic Product (JPN, GMT 23:50) – The Q2 GDP in Japan is likely to have grown by 1.5% from 0.7% with annualised growth at 6%.
Friday – 08 September 2023
Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German consumer price index is expected unchanged for August with headline slowing down to 6.1% from 6.2%.
Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Employment Change in Canada is expected to be -20.00k by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analyst expectations.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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