Canada is about to drop lower-tier economic data amidst lower oil prices!
How will today’s themes affect EUR/CAD’s intraweek trend?
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out bitcoin’s (BTC/USD) short-term retracement ahead of mid-tier report releases in the U.S. Be sure to check out if it’s still a good play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
On Thursday, Federal Reserve member Lisa Cook commented that a ‘soft landing’ is a possibility and that there is still a two-sided risk of tightening not enough or too much
U.S. weekly initial jobless claims: 231K (219K forecast; 218K previous); continuing jobless claims rose to 1.865M vs. 1.833M previous
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for November improved to -5.9 (-12.0 forecast; -9.0 previous); Employment index fell to 0.8 vs. 4.0 previous; Prices Paid Index fell to 14.8 vs. 23.1 previous
U.S. Industrial Production for October: -0.6% m/m (-0.2% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m previous)
NAHB: U.S. homebuilder sentiment index dropped from 40 to 34 in November, the lowest this year, as high mortgage limited demand
Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba fell by almost 10% after the company announced it’s ditching a full spinoff of its cloud group due to U.S. chip export restrictions
In testimony to Parliament, BOJ Gov. Ueda shared that the central bank will “Consider ending yield curve control and negative interest rates if we can expect inflation to stably and sustainably meet our 2% target.”
New Zealand’s business input prices rose by 1.2% q/q (0.2% q/q forecast, -0.2% previous); Output prices accelerated from 0.2% q/q to 0.8% q/q (0.4% q/q forecast) in Q3 2023
U.K.’s retail sales for October: -0.3% m/m (0.5% m/m forecast, -1.1% m/m previous)
Price Action News
Overlay of GBP vs. Major Currencies Chart by TradingView
A lack of fresh catalysts kept the major currencies in tight ranges during the Asian and early European session trading.
NZD and GBP were exceptions though. The New Zealand dollar started the day on weak footing despite hotter-than-expected quarterly business price numbers.
Meanwhile, the British pound dropped across the board when the U.K.’s October retail sales activity missed the markets’ expectations, and September’s numbers were revised lower from -0.9% to -1.1%.
GBP is taking the biggest L’s against JPY and USD and is only green against NZD so far today.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
ECB President Lagarde to give a speech at 8:30 am GMTEurozone’s final CPI reports at 10:00 am GMTCanada’s foreign securities purchases 1:30 pm GMTU.S. housing starts and building permits at 1:30 pm GMT
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️
EUR/CAD 15-min Forex Chart by TradingView
Who’s looking for a non-USD currency pair on the last trading day of the week?
If you are, then you would be interested to know that EUR/CAD has pulled back to the 1.4900 psychological level after getting rejected at its 1.4980 weekly highs.
What makes the setup interesting today is that EUR/CAD seems to be getting enough buying pressure at today’s Pivot Point (1.4910) line near a short-term resistance level.
Not only that, but EUR/CAD’s current levels are also not too far from a trend line support that’s been valid all week.
Those who are betting on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) hawkishness or are pricing in lower crude oil prices can take advantage of the retracement.
A long trade at current levels or at the first signs of a bullish momentum can give you a decent risk ratio especially if you place your stops just under the trend line and aim for new November highs.
Before you buy EUR/CAD like there’s no tomorrow, you should know that ECB President Lagarde will be giving a speech and Canada will publish lower-tier economic reports.
A round of profit-taking or headlines that would reverse this week’s EUR strength and CAD weakness may still draw in enough sellers to drag EUR/CAD below its uptrend support zones.
What do you think? Which way will EUR/CAD go?
